tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 80%

  1. 09:30 IAD → 12:16 SEA
    AS 361 · Alaska · 5h 46m · 90% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:16 SEA → 16:11 SMF
    AS 681 · Alaska · 1h 55m · 84% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip9h 41mIAD 09:30 to SMF 16:11, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.