tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 20%

  1. 12:15 ANC → 16:49 SEA
    AS 363 · Alaska · 3h 34m · 97% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 SEA → 19:52 SFO
    AS 791 · Alaska · 2h 16m · 28% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip6h 37mANC 12:15 to SFO 19:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.