tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Tampa via Dulles: arrives on time 88%

  1. 22:43 SEA → 06:39 IAD
    AS 367 · Alaska · 4h 56m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 21m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:00 IAD → 11:32 TPA +1 day
    UA 683 · United · 2h 32m · 91% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 51 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 21m layover.
Arrives on time88%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip9h 49mSEA 22:43 to TPA 11:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.