tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → San Francisco via San Diego: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:40 PDX → 20:18 SAN
    AS 369 · Alaska · 2h 38m · 57% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:27 SAN → 23:08 SFO
    AS 291 · Alaska · 1h 41m · 42% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip5h 28mPDX 17:40 to SFO 23:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.