tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Phoenix via San Diego: arrives on time 17%

  1. 17:40 PDX → 20:18 SAN
    AS 369 · Alaska · 2h 38m · 57% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:19 SAN → 22:39 PHX
    AS 2049 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 20m · 36% on time, 15.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (15.4% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip4h 59mPDX 17:40 to PHX 22:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.