tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:03 MSP → 07:58 SEA
    AS 387 · Alaska · 3h 55m · 85% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:53 SEA → 12:44 FAI
    AS 1552 · Alaska · 3h 51m · 78% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 70 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 55m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip9h 41mMSP 06:03 to FAI 12:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.