tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Atlanta via Seattle: arrives on time 65%

  1. 20:34 SMF → 22:39 SEA
    AS 403 · Alaska · 2h 05m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:31 SEA → 07:24 ATL +1 day
    AS 464 · Alaska · 4h 53m · 88% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 50mSMF 20:34 to ATL 07:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.