tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 56%

  1. 20:34 SMF → 22:39 SEA
    AS 403 · Alaska · 2h 05m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:26 SEA → 00:22 PDX +1 day
    AS 2377 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 56m · 86% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 3h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip3h 48mSMF 20:34 to PDX 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.