tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 63%

  1. 15:43 ORD → 18:22 SEA
    AS 407 · Alaska · 4h 39m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 06m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:28 SEA → 23:18 FAI
    AS 1880 · Alaska · 3h 50m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 81 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 06m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip10h 35mORD 15:43 to FAI 23:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.