tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 55%

  1. 15:43 ORD → 18:22 SEA
    AS 407 · Alaska · 4h 39m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:22 SEA → 20:17 PDX
    AS 2372 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 55m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 34mORD 15:43 to PDX 20:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.