tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Oakland via Seattle: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:03 IAD → 08:48 SEA
    AS 409 · Alaska · 5h 45m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:41 SEA → 13:59 OAK
    AS 1328 · Alaska · 2h 18m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 10h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 128 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 53m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip10h 56mIAD 06:03 to OAK 13:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.