tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 06:03 IAD → 08:48 SEA
    AS 409 · Alaska · 5h 45m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 18m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:06 SEA → 13:55 SNA
    AS 1357 · Alaska · 2h 49m · 85% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 10h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 93 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 18m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip10h 52mIAD 06:03 to SNA 13:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.