tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 48%

  1. 06:03 IAD → 08:48 SEA
    AS 409 · Alaska · 5h 45m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:01 SEA → 12:01 SMF
    AS 1380 · Alaska · 2h 00m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip8h 58mIAD 06:03 to SMF 12:01, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.