tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Burbank via Seattle: arrives on time 49%

  1. 06:03 IAD → 08:48 SEA
    AS 409 · Alaska · 5h 45m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:43 SEA → 12:23 BUR
    AS 426 · Alaska · 2h 40m · 86% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip9h 20mIAD 06:03 to BUR 12:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.