tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 53%

  1. 06:03 IAD → 08:48 SEA
    AS 409 · Alaska · 5h 45m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:59 SEA → 13:01 PHX
    AS 593 · Alaska · 3h 02m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 58mIAD 06:03 to PHX 13:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.