tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 43%

  1. 11:30 JFK → 14:50 SFO
    AS 41 · Alaska · 6h 20m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:50 SFO → 18:00 SEA
    AS 1340 · Alaska · 2h 10m · 69% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip9h 30mJFK 11:30 to SEA 18:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.