tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via San Francisco: arrives on time 64%

  1. 11:30 JFK → 14:50 SFO
    AS 41 · Alaska · 6h 20m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 18m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:08 SFO → 19:47 SNA
    AS 3492 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 39m · 71% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 11h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 153 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 18m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip11h 17mJFK 11:30 to SNA 19:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.