tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via San Francisco: arrives on time 51%

  1. 11:30 JFK → 14:50 SFO
    AS 41 · Alaska · 6h 20m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:48 SFO → 17:26 SNA
    AS 3494 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip8h 56mJFK 11:30 to SNA 17:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.