tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Seattle via Portland: arrives on time 52%

  1. 07:20 ORD → 09:45 PDX
    AS 413 · Alaska · 4h 25m · 79% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 PDX → 11:43 SEA
    AS 3431 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 08m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 23mORD 07:20 to SEA 11:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.