tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Missoula via Seattle: arrives on time 36%

  1. 17:35 SAN → 20:35 SEA
    AS 417 · Alaska · 3h 00m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:27 SEA → 23:56 MSO
    AS 560 · Alaska · 1h 29m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 21mSAN 17:35 to MSO 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.