tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 46%

  1. 16:52 MCO → 20:09 SEA
    AS 419 · Alaska · 6h 17m · 77% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 SEA → 22:48 SMF
    AS 1427 · Alaska · 1h 53m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip8h 56mMCO 16:52 to SMF 22:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.