tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 64%

  1. 14:37 PHX → 17:43 SEA
    AS 425 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:59 SEA → 22:10 KOA
    AS 200 · Alaska · 6h 11m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip10h 33mPHX 14:37 to KOA 22:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.