tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 57%

  1. 14:37 PHX → 17:43 SEA
    AS 425 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 59m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:42 SEA → 22:55 SFO
    AS 590 · Alaska · 2h 13m · 57% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 134 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 59m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 18mPHX 14:37 to SFO 22:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.