tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 19%

  1. 14:37 PHX → 17:43 SEA
    AS 425 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:36 SEA → 20:48 SFO
    AS 619 · Alaska · 2h 12m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip6h 11mPHX 14:37 to SFO 20:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.