tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Santa Rosa via Seattle: arrives on time 68%

  1. 14:37 PHX → 17:43 SEA
    AS 425 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 SEA → 22:51 STS
    AS 3410 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 2h 07m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 136 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 14mPHX 14:37 to STS 22:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.