tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 45%

  1. 09:19 PDX → 10:21 SEA
    AS 427 · Alaska · 1h 02m · 48% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:27 SEA → 14:35 KOA
    AS 204 · Alaska · 6h 08m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 16mPDX 09:19 to KOA 14:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.