tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → San Jose via Seattle: arrives on time 16%

  1. 09:19 PDX → 10:21 SEA
    AS 427 · Alaska · 1h 02m · 48% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:08 SEA → 13:20 SJC
    AS 335 · Alaska · 2h 12m · 69% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection24%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 76% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (24%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 01mPDX 09:19 to SJC 13:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.