tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 46%

  1. 17:30 PDX → 18:33 SEA
    AS 430 · Alaska · 1h 03m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:23 SEA → 21:16 SMF
    AS 638 · Alaska · 1h 53m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip3h 46mPDX 17:30 to SMF 21:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.