tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → El Paso via Houston: arrives on time 77%

  1. 10:52 SEA → 17:16 IAH
    AS 438 · Alaska · 4h 24m · 70% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 41m layover in Houston (IAH) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 19:57 IAH → 21:01 ELP
    UA 4009 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 04m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 71 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 41m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip9h 09mSEA 10:52 to ELP 21:01, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.