tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 49%

  1. 16:26 PHL → 19:30 SEA
    AS 443 · Alaska · 6h 04m · 66% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 SEA → 21:22 PDX
    AS 2387 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip7h 56mPHL 16:26 to PDX 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.