tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 37%

  1. 18:46 SNA → 21:34 SEA
    AS 454 · Alaska · 2h 48m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:29 SEA → 23:30 PDX
    AS 1457 · Alaska · 1h 01m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 44mSNA 18:46 to PDX 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.