tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Dulles via Seattle: arrives on time 59%

  1. 18:46 SNA → 21:34 SEA
    AS 454 · Alaska · 2h 48m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:43 SEA → 06:39 IAD +1 day
    AS 367 · Alaska · 4h 56m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip8h 53mSNA 18:46 to IAD 06:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.