tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 47%

  1. 13:59 SAN → 16:58 SEA
    AS 465 · Alaska · 2h 59m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 SEA → 23:59 ORD
    AS 538 · Alaska · 4h 11m · 80% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 00mSAN 13:59 to ORD 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.