tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 49%

  1. 18:45 SJC → 21:00 SEA
    AS 481 · Alaska · 2h 15m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:29 SEA → 23:30 PDX
    AS 1457 · Alaska · 1h 01m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 45mSJC 18:45 to PDX 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.