tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 54%

  1. 06:22 OAK → 08:26 SEA
    AS 491 · Alaska · 2h 04m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 03m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:29 SEA → 16:44 ORD
    AS 429 · Alaska · 4h 15m · 56% on time, 3.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 78 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 03m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (3.1% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip8h 22mOAK 06:22 to ORD 16:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.