tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Dulles via Seattle: arrives on time 65%

  1. 06:22 OAK → 08:26 SEA
    AS 491 · Alaska · 2h 04m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:13 SEA → 17:11 IAD
    AS 737 · Alaska · 4h 58m · 84% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 49mOAK 06:22 to IAD 17:11, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.