tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Honolulu via Los Angeles: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:10 SEA → 19:55 LAX
    AS 492 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:47 LAX → 23:34 HNL
    AS 854 · Alaska · 5h 47m · 37% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip9h 24mSEA 17:10 to HNL 23:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.