tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Kahului via Seattle: arrives on time 59%

  1. 06:19 PDX → 07:17 SEA
    AS 499 · Alaska · 58m · 93% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:05 SEA → 11:19 OGG
    AS 245 · Alaska · 6h 14m · 82% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip8h 00mPDX 06:19 to OGG 11:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.