tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:36 PDX → 19:30 SFO
    AS 504 · Alaska · 1h 54m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:28 SFO → 22:41 SEA
    AS 591 · Alaska · 2h 13m · 72% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 05mPDX 17:36 to SEA 22:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.