tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Palm Springs via San Francisco: arrives on time 20%

  1. 17:36 PDX → 19:30 SFO
    AS 504 · Alaska · 1h 54m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:19 SFO → 21:57 PSP
    AS 3356 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 38m · 61% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection34%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 66% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (34%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 21mPDX 17:36 to PSP 21:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.