tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 74%

  1. 16:57 MSP → 18:52 SEA
    AS 510 · Alaska · 3h 55m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 49m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 21:41 SEA → 00:30 FAI +1 day
    DL 2186 · Delta · 3h 49m · 79% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 10h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 79 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 49m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip10h 33mMSP 16:57 to FAI 00:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.