tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Minneapolis via Portland: arrives on time 64%

  1. 07:00 PHX → 09:43 PDX
    AS 511 · Alaska · 2h 43m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 PDX → 15:58 MSP
    AS 1429 · Alaska · 3h 28m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip6h 58mPHX 07:00 to MSP 15:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.