tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → Santa Ana via Phoenix: arrives on time 78%

  1. 14:52 PAE → 17:50 PHX
    AS 515 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 17m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 21:07 PHX → 22:26 SNA
    AA 2637 · American · 1h 19m · 82% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 107 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 17m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 34mPAE 14:52 to SNA 22:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.