tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 44%

  1. 14:52 PAE → 17:50 PHX
    AS 515 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 33m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 20:23 PHX → 22:23 SFO
    AA 686 · American · 2h 00m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 63 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 33m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip7h 31mPAE 14:52 to SFO 22:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.