tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 53%

  1. 14:16 SJC → 16:27 SEA
    AS 521 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 73% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 SEA → 20:08 SNA
    AS 472 · Alaska · 2h 48m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip5h 52mSJC 14:16 to SNA 20:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.