tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 64%

  1. 14:56 MSP → 16:50 SEA
    AS 555 · Alaska · 3h 54m · 78% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 SEA → 20:46 FAI
    AS 284 · Alaska · 3h 50m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 50mMSP 14:56 to FAI 20:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.