tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 16%

  1. 14:56 MSP → 16:50 SEA
    AS 555 · Alaska · 3h 54m · 78% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 SEA → 19:52 SFO
    AS 791 · Alaska · 2h 16m · 28% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip6h 56mMSP 14:56 to SFO 19:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.