tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Boise via Seattle: arrives on time 53%

  1. 14:56 MSP → 16:50 SEA
    AS 555 · Alaska · 3h 54m · 78% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 SEA → 20:07 BOI
    AS 2109 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 27m · 82% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 11mMSP 14:56 to BOI 20:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.