tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Santa Rosa via Ontario: arrives on time 85%

  1. 13:50 SEA → 16:30 ONT
    AS 571 · Alaska · 2h 40m · 52% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 13m layover in Ontario (ONT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:43 ONT → 20:14 STS
    AS 3086 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 31m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 88 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 13m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip6h 24mSEA 13:50 to STS 20:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.