tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Sacramento via San Diego: arrives on time 51%

  1. 07:32 PDX → 10:05 SAN
    AS 577 · Alaska · 2h 33m · 80% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 SAN → 12:53 SMF
    AS 3439 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 53m · 74% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 21mPDX 07:32 to SMF 12:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.